Syria, which only a few weeks ago was the great enemy of the West -
a member of the "Axis of Evil," secretly producing atomic weapons,
meddling in Lebanon by way of vicious murders, sending weapons and
ammunition to Hizbullah and hosting the heads of Hamas - was
suddenly invited to the Annapolis conference, and even actually
attended. Syria's appearance in Annapolis became a noteworthy event
and may become the springboard for renewed peace talks between
Israel and Syria, especially if the conference's attempt to bring
about real and fundamental negotiations between Israel and the
Palestinian Authority in 2008 should eventually fail.
Background
On November 25, 2007, the government of Syria announced its
decision to send a delegate to the Annapolis Conference for Peace
in the Middle East in accordance with the invitation of United
States President George W. Bush. Syria decided to send its deputy
foreign minister and former United Nations ambassador, Faisal
Miqdad. The Syrian decision concluded a short period of
deliberations in Damascus, emerging from Syria's need to be invited
directly as a country (and not as a member in the Arab League's
Follow-Up Committee), and the even greater need to receive
meaningful mention of the Israeli-Syrian conflict during the
conference. These were the two conditions put forth by Syria for
its appearance at the conference. Syria eventually was formally
invited as a country, and Washington found a way to put the Golan
Heights on the agenda, namely, by forming a discussion group on
regional peace, thus allowing the Syrians to accept the
invitation.
American Motives
Inviting Syria to the conference and satisfying, even if partially,
its two conditions for appearing at the conference - all this
points to a possible change in the U.S. position toward the Syrian
regime. One can find countless statements from past years by
American officials about Syria as a terrorist state that must be
isolated and denounced. Some high-ranking administration officials
have made statements including Syria in the "Axis of Evil" because
of its strong ties with Iran, Hizbullah and Hamas. The U.S. media,
quietly assisted by the government, also supported the Israeli
attack over Syria on September 6, 2007, as the American press often
publishes harsh claims against Syria and actually shapes hostile
international public opinion toward the Syrian government. The
decisive American position against Syria in the last few years,
which was in many ways a result of Syria's assistance to the Iraqi
insurgents, also greatly affected Europe's negative position toward
Assad's regime, as well as Israel's position toward Damascus.
What Caused the Change in the American Position?
Syrian signals since the end of the Second Lebanon War suggesting
that it is prepared to renew peace talks with Israel has been met
with complete disregard from Washington until now. The invitation
of Syria to Annapolis is in many ways a result of Bush's political
distress, stemming from his poor Middle Eastern record during the
seven years of his administration. Bush needed a big media success
in Annapolis in order to prove to the American public that the
ongoing occupation of Iraq has not caused him to completely lose
his standing in the Arab world. Inviting Syria made it easier for
the other members of the Arab League to attend, even the Saudis
(despite the tension between Riyadh and Damascus). Moreover,
Syria's participation helped create the impression that it would be
possible to drive a wedge between Damascus and Tehran in the near
future. Disengaging Syria from its dependency on its alliance with
Iran would undoubtedly be a political achievement for Bush, who
sees isolating Iran to be a major priority on his agenda.
The fact that the signing of an Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement
does not look possible as long as Palestinian President Mahmoud
Abbas (Abu Mazen) does not control the Gaza Strip (as Israeli Prime
Minister Ehud Olmert has been saying recently) has the Americans
worried that Annapolis would eventually fail in its ultimate goal:
a solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. In the event of
such a failure, it is best to prepare a Syrian alternative that
will keep the political momentum in the Middle East moving forward,
even if on a different front.
It is also possible that the pressures on the American
administration from the Democrats, as well as from a long list of
former senior diplomats, have helped in softening the resistance to
Syria among the hard-core neo-conservatives surrounding Bush. It is
difficult, however, to assume that these pressures would be
fruitful without the administration coming to an understanding that
Syrian participation in the Annapolis conference is beneficial to
the U.S. under current conditions.
Syrian Motives
Syria appeared at Annapolis mostly because it was its first opening
to the Western states and to the moderates in the Arab world in a
while. Syria considers the Western camp to be a more beneficial
long-term affiliation than its current identification with the
Iranian camp. Syria's attendance at Annapolis sends the message
that it does not consider itself to be forever in a single camp
with Iran, Hizbullah and Hamas. Such a message is a meaningful
political maneuver, because Syria's participation in Annapolis will
most likely be costly for it in its relations with Iran.
Getting the negotiations with Israel going is of less importance
for the Syrians than opening the door to the West through
Washington. However, the Syrians understand that these matters are
interrelated, and that moving forward according to the Arab Peace
Initiative for the conclusion of the Israeli-Arab conflict is now
important for both the Americans and the Israelis. A possible
crisis in the Israeli-Palestinian arena in 2008 might create an
interesting opportunity for the Syrians to improve their
relationship with the U.S., Europe and Israel. The Syrians
understand that achieving sovereignty over the entire Golan Heights
has become impossible without a real revolution in Israeli public
opinion over the issue. Syria's disengagement from Iran has become
a necessary condition for such an Israeli withdrawal and, as a
result, for a comprehensive Israeli-Syrian-American peace
arrangement.
The Israeli Position
The development that brought about Syria's participation in the
Annapolis conference has almost no connection with the Israeli
position on the subject. Israeli leaders repeatedly said that the
Palestinian issue was the only item on the agenda in Annapolis, and
they found America's incorporation of the regional issue against
Israel's position to be quite embarrassing.
However, Israel, too, knows how to read the complex
Israeli-Palestinian map and diagnose the potential deadlock in
2008. Israel, too, is worried by the possibility of failure of the
Annapolis process and its implications for the coming year. This is
why the Israeli leadership welcomed Syria's participation, as well
as for the blow this dealt to Hamas and the pressure it puts on
Abbas to moderate his demands.
The Israeli leadership is aware, of course, of the great difficulty
in holding parallel discussions on withdrawing both from the West
Bank and from the Golan Heights. Even a government such as the
current one, which enjoys a solid majority in the Knesset, could
disintegrate quickly if it were to hold serious simultaneous
negotiations with the Palestinians and the Syrians. This is why the
Syrian track is being built as an alternative to the Palestinian
one, and not as an additional track alongside it. Olmert prefers to
move ahead on the negotiations with the Palestinians, to which he
is currently deeply committed. It appears that Defense Minister
Ehud Barak is less committed than Olmert to the Palestinian track,
and may even prefer the Syrian one.
Possible Developments after the Conference
The internal Israeli political arena, as well as the Israel
security apparatus, will not allow Olmert, despite his possible
wish and firm commitment, to conclude negotiations with Abbas on
the core issues (borders, evacuation of settlements and Israeli
withdrawal from the West Bank) as long as Abbas does not control
the Gaza Strip. On the Syrian issue, by contrast, Olmert will find
his defense minister and the entire security establishment on his
side once he decides to move ahead.
Whether Israel and Syria will in fact be able to enter into serious
negotiations will depend mainly on Washington's willingness to send
a special envoy to the Israeli-Syrian talks. Delegating such a
formal envoy by the Americans could pave the way to peace along
Israel's northern borders.