The Center for Palestine Research and Studies (CPRS) has been
conducting regular public opinion polls to document important
phases in the history of the Palestinian people and to record the
reactions of the Palestinian com¬munity with regard to current
political events. The first poll was carried out in September
10-11, 1993, in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, two days before
the Declaration of Principles (DOP) was signed. That poll found
that a majority of respondents (64.9%) were enthusiastic about the
forthcoming signing of the agreement.
The center's latest poll (February, 1995), however, confirms a
trend of declining public support for continuing negotiations in
the peace process. An unprecedented number of Palestinians (81%)
support halting the nego¬tiations. This figure reflects the
perception among West Bank and Gaza res¬idents that Israel is
not complying with the agreements, as shown by the procrastination
in transferring authority to the PNA, continued land appropriation
in Jerusalem and other areas, continued settlement activity and
deteriorating economic conditions, especially as a result of the
closure imposed by Israel on the West Bank and the Gaza
Strip.
Results also underline the growing feeling that the negotiations
have not been fruitful and that there is a need to find other means
to achieve Palestinian goals.
Conditional Support
The poll conducted in September, 1993, made some things obvious:
the majority of Palestinians, irrespective of political
affiliation, believed in the need to use democratic dialogue, and
not violence, to change public opin¬ions (the exception was a
small percentage of Gaza residents). A majority of those surveyed
(64.9%) supported the Gaza-Jericho First agreement and only 27.9%
opposed it. Yet even then, there were definite reservations (59.9%)
about delaying the discussion of the issues of Jerusalem, the
settle¬ments and the refugees to a later stage. In fact,
widespread support for the negotiations was conditional on the
discussion of these issues. A year later, the failure to address
these thorny subjects has proved a major cause for the impasse
facing the negotiations today.
This is clearly evident in the most recent poll, conducted on
February 2¬4, 1995. Important events preceding this poll
include the Beit Lid bombing which killed 21 Israelis, mainly
soldiers, and the subsequent Israeli deci¬sion to seal off the
West Bank and Gaza Strip and delay prisoner release; the expansion
of settlement activity; and a rise in unemployment to an overall 51
% (57% in the Gaza Strip, 48% in the West Bank), compared with 32%
in the preceding month.
Continuing the Negotiations
While 14.1% favor continuing the negotiations, an unprecedented
majori¬ty of 81.3% of the Palestinians oppose ongoing talks,
as long as settlement activity continues. (In February, 1994,
following the massacre at the Ibrahimi Mosque in Hebron, 55.5%
opposed continuing the negotiations). In the poll conducted in
December, 1994, 38.7% of respondents expressed their support for
continuing the negotiations with Israel, compared with 31.5%, who
advocated suspending the negotiations until Israel complies with
the terms of the agreements signed with the Palestinians. A further
20.6% supported halting negotiations permanently.
This 30% increase in the number of those who call for the
suspension or halting of negotiations is a sign that the DOP has
not achieved what it was supposed to, and that Israel has yet to
comply with the terms of the agree¬ment, particularly with its
implementation "on the ground." By and large, Palestinians are
skeptical about Israel's sincerity in seeking peace. Some 72.3% of
respondents expressed doubts about that commitment in a poll that
the CPRS conducted in November, 1994. Most Palestinians support the
negotiations in principle, which may reflect a perceived lack of
alternative
Prospects for a Palestinian State
55.3%, however, still believe that the peace process which started
at Oslo will lead to the establishment of a Palestinian state, 6%
more than in September, 1993, while 32.6% said they did not expect
that outcome. Some 62.4% of those surveyed in Gaza gave a positive
response, while only 50% of those questioned in the West Bank did
so, which might be attributed to the presence of the PNA in Gaza,
and the ongoing Israeli occupation of the West Bank.
Military Operations against Israelis
Lack of real change has bred frustration among Palestinians. In the
most recent poll, 46% said they supported military operations
against Israeli tar¬gets, 33.5% opposed them, and 20.5% were
undecided. As expected, the greater percentage of support came from
the opposition: 71.8% of Hamas supporters and 62.2% of Islamic
Jihad supporters were opposed. It is note¬worthy that a large
percentage of support for military operations also exists among
Fatah members (39.8%), an indication that elements of the
mainstream might be losing patience with the stalled negotiations
and looking for alternatives. The opposition to military operations
is equally divided between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. There
was a similar result in November, 1994.
Separation
64.3% of those surveyed, mostly West Bank residents, saw separation
between Israel and the West Bank and the Gaza Strip as Israeli
retaliatory collective punishment, which again reflects skepticism
about Israel's inten¬tions. Only 15.8% see separation as a
first step by Israel toward accepting the establishment of a
Palestinian state. 19.9% are undecided.
Elections of the PNA President
When asked about hypothetical elections, respondents expressed the
great¬est amount of support for PNA head Yasser Arafat,
especially in Gaza. He is followed by Hamas leader Sheikh Ahmad
Yassin, populist figure Haidar Abdel Shafi and Popular Front for
the Liberation of Palestine leader George Habash, in that order.
The results of this poll corresponded large¬ly with those of
two
previous polls (in November, 1994 and December, 1994). In the three
months prior to the poll, Arafat's popularity rose
con¬tinually (44.2% in November, 1994, 48.5% in December, 1994
and 53.4% in February, 1995), especially in the West Bank, as had
the popularity of Fatah, which reached an all-time peak of 49.5%.
Curiously, support for Hamas dropped from 16.6% to 14.4%.
Some 79% support the holding of general elections and 77.1% said
they intended to participate in them.
Growing Frustration
The questions posed in the polls have not always been consistent,
and so comparison is not always possible. However, one significant
change in public opinion is obvious since the first poll was
conducted more than a year ago. Lack of progress on the ground has
led to growing frustration among the Palestinians and to an erosion
in public support for the peace process, as seen in the over 80%
opposition to continuing the peace nego¬tiations as long as
Israeli settlement activity continues. From the 64.9% of those who
supported the negotiations in September, 1993, the figure fell to
38.7% in December, 1994, and to 14.1% in February, 1995.
A further factor contributing to Palestinian disenchantment with
the peace process is the deterioration in economic conditions. In
September, 1993, 65.4% expressed optimism at the prospect of
improvement in eco¬nomic conditions; in February, 1995, they
are facing an overall figure of 51 % unemployment, largely as a
result of the closure imposed by Israel on the West Bank and the
Gaza Strip.
Prior to the signing of the DOP, Palestinians could look forward to
the day when an agreement with Israel would mark the beginning of
the end of Israeli Occupation, with the realization of their
aspirations as a logical conclusion.
An agreement has been signed. So far it has failed to deliver. The
polls cited here reflect that frustration, indeed growing
desperation, that there may be nothing, in this peace process, for
which to hope.