Since the swearing in of Israel’s extremist rightwing government at the end of 2022, Israelis and Palestinians have experienced horrific times. Israelis have suffered from the government’s incitement and corruption, but their greatest suffering has been over the Israelis who were murdered, abducted, and raped on October 7th and those who were killed in the war that broke out in its aftermath. The Palestinians, who suffered from a dramatic rise in settler violence — stone throwing, shooting, arson, and the establishment of new settlements — even before the crimes of October 7th, endured Israel’s harsh revenge in Gaza, where the Israeli army killed tens of thousands, mainly innocent civilians, and practiced a policy of starvation and homicide. The West Bank, too, endured nonstop settler terrorism and the revenge wrought by some regular army units.
A Different Government Is Needed
In the wake of such difficult and bloody years, a different government is required. But what will this government look like? The polls in Israel are unequivocal: There is, unfortunately, no chance for a government led by the peace camp. Instead, there are three possibilities. The first is victory for the Netanyahu-Ben-Gvir camp. Such a victory would be a disaster, resulting in the emigration of hundreds of thousands of Israelis and the acceleration of the war against the Palestinians. Unfortunately, this is a realistic possibility. The second possibility is that Naftali Bennett will join with Netanyahu, and they will establish a “legitimate” right-wing government. The third and best possibility would be the establishment of a “government of change,” although in this case the script is unclear. Obviously, there would be a huge difference between a government that would include Arab parties (my hope) and one that would not.
This government of change, whether led by Naftali Bennett or Gadi Eisenkot, will be a right-wing government. Nonetheless, many things can change. Such a government can bring an end to corruption, an end to the incitement, and manage the country in a responsible way. Many Israelis hope for this. The question is whether the next government will be any better than the current one when it comes to the most important and existential issue: the Israeli occupation of the Palestinian territories.
Peace Will Not Be on the Agenda But What Can a Different Government Do?
Not everything is clear, but it can already be assumed that the next government will not bring peace. A government headed by a former chair of the Council of West Bank Settlements (Bennett) or former chief of staff (Eisenkot) who enjoys strong right-wing support will probably not even come close. Still, this assumption is open to doubt. In the last two years, Israel’s foreign relations have been demolished, a quarter of a million Israelis have left the country, and the picture in the United States has flipped: For the first time, more Americans prefer Palestine over Israel. It’s possible, though not likely, that this could force the current U.S. president, or his successor, to dictate an agreement to Israel.
It can be assumed that a government of change in Israel would want to distance itself from the current government and improve relations with the U.S., Arab states, Europe, and the rest of the world — maybe even in exchange for a compromise on the Palestinian issue. There is no possibility that the new government’s agenda will include a two-state solution, but it is possible that it might include opposition to a binational state and support for separation from the Palestinians. It is reasonable to assume that it could include Trump’s 20-point plan (with a Palestinian state as an end point).
The inclusion of Trump's 20-point plan is important, as is mention of Israel’s Declaration of Independence, where the word peace appears five times and where it is also stated that Israel will be faithful to the principles of the United Nations’ Charter. It is important also to include the desire to rehabilitate relations with the U.S. and the Arab states. For me, the most important priority is that the new government must include at least one Arab party and hopefully will include Arab ministers. Of course, this partnership with Arab parties would not have any direct influence on progress toward peace, but the ongoing positive presence of Arab MKs in the coalition and in the government could signify that the Arabs are no longer the enemy. They are partners. The establishment of the next government must be identified with the end of the incitement against Palestinians and peace activists. It is to be hoped that under such a government, many who today hesitate to express their views will no longer fear to do so.
The new government must fight Jewish terrorism. In this, it could be very different from its predecessor, whose relationship with Jewish terrorism fluctuates between support and indifference. The government will have to place the army and the police in the hands of ministers who will fight for this. It must begin a peace-in-Israel campaign in which the army and police raid the concentrations and infrastructure of Jewish terrorism in the settler farms in the occupied territories.
The Importance of the Ministers in a Change Government
Who will be appointed to the various ministries in the next government is of great importance. There are ministries, particularly the Defense Ministry, where it will be possible to do a lot to stop the annexation going on in the occupied territories and perhaps even to reverse it, taking it back to where things were on December 29, 2022, the day the blood government was established. The appointment of Yair Golan as minister of internal security instead of the racist Ben-Gvir could aid significantly in both reducing crime in Arab society and in eradicating Jewish terrorism.
Ministers in the Education and Communications Ministries who attempt to change the prevalent racist and hostile attitudes toward Palestinians will find it very hard to do so given the younger generation, which is very different ideologically and demographically from their parents’ generation (with many more ultra-Orthodox, religious, and settlers). Israel has not engaged in peace negotiations for decades and has ignored all peace initiatives, including the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative. Older Israelis were raised on the false ethos that we want peace, while younger Israelis have been raised on the ethos that we don’t need peace. On the other hand, it’s possible that these ministers will be able to stop incitement in the media and educational system.
A new government will need to act differently from the current one and to reverse all its actions — to cancel the tax breaks for settlers, to evacuate the new settler outposts, and to cancel all of Minister in the Defense Ministry Smotrich’s administrative decisions which enabled the gradual, creeping annexation. On the one hand, this isn’t much. It won’t end the cursed occupation and save Israel, but on the other hand, it’s definitely something, because the settlers and Netanyahu’s poison machine have launched an orchestrated attack against anyone attempting to reverse their trajectory.
The next government will be faced with a wave of legislative initiatives brought by the right-wing opposition to weaken it. The initiators will hope that the coalition’s right-wing members will vote for them. They will bring initiatives for annexation: Ma’ale Adumim, the Jordan Valley, Area C. They will rail against the fact that many members of the coalition of change had supported these immoral laws when they were in the opposition. They will conveniently forget, of course, that they themselves, as part of the current coalition, did not advance these laws and even voted against them.
On the other hand, the government of change will try again every year to pass the Judea/Samaria regulations that would make Israeli rather than civil administration law applicable, amend the citizenship law that defines who has the right to Israeli citizenship, and coerce the center-left members of the coalition to support these bad moves. The new government will continue the militaristic discourse that demands that the ultra-Orthodox enlist in the army and, in this regard, will stress the lack of sufficient soldiers. Perhaps, in order to emphasize this shortage and even increase it, it will send more soldiers to the occupied territories and to other unnecessary military assignments.
A State Judicial Commission of Inquiry for October 7th
Already at the start of its term of office, the new government will establish a state judicial commission of inquiry to investigate the October 7th disaster. This is of utmost importance. It will be very important to make clear that the policies of occupation, of managing the conflict, of the refusal to reach an agreement, and of preferring Hamas over the Palestinian Authority were part of the background to the October 7th crimes. But there is room for apprehension that a skewed composition of the commission would focus
mainly on narrow military matters. Throughout the commission’s hearings, Netanyahu’s poison machine will magnify Israeli victimization and ignore the mass murder of Palestinians, continuing to paint all Palestinians as irreconcilable enemies and all Israelis as victims.