In mid-June, during and immediately after Hamas' violent takeover
of the Gaza Strip, the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey
Research (PCPSR) conducted one of its regular public opinion polls
in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. The poll addressed the issues
of the infighting, early elections, dissolution of the PA,
confederation with Jordan, the American security plan proposed in
May, and various facets of Israeli-Palestinian relations. The
sample size was 1,270 adults, 830 in the West Bank and 440 in the
Gaza Strip, interviewed face to face in 127 randomly selected
locations. The margin of error was 3%.
The survey results show that the recent infighting has angered most
Palestinians and has led to a loss of confidence in the leadership
and most of the security services. They also show that while there
is clear support for the American security plan and for holding
early parliamentary and presidential elections, the public is split
over other alternatives, such as the dissolution of the Palestinian
Authority (PA) and replacing it with an international trusteeship
or the establishment of a confederation with Jordan. Findings show
that more than 40% support alternatives to the status quo, such as
the dissolution of the PA and its replacement with an international
trusteeship or return to Israeli occupation. A similar percentage
supports a confederation with Jordan, either now or after the
establishment of a Palestinian state. Findings also show that Hamas
has lost some of its popularity in light of the events in the Gaza
Strip, but Fateh's popularity has not benefited from those same
events.
Pessimism characterizes the public's assessment of domestic
developments, with a majority describing infighting and lawlessness
as the most immediate and dangerous threat to Palestinians. The
Israeli occupation came third on the list of threats. A relatively
large percentage expressed a desire to emigrate abroad. Similarly,
a relatively large percentage said it was not proud of being
Palestinian.
Despite the continued support for the peace process and the
two-state solution, the poll shows a high level of pessimism
regarding prospects for the establishment of a Palestinian state in
the next five years. Pessimism also prevails regarding the chances
of reaching a compromise agreement with the Israeli government led
by Prime Minister Ehud Olmert. Nonetheless, a large percentage
expressed support for the American security plan after being told
of its main components: The Palestinians ending terrorism, the
launching of rockets against Israel, arms smuggling and
lawlessness; and the Israelis opening international crossings,
linking the West Bank with Gaza and removing checkpoints in the
West Bank.
Early Elections and Domestic Balance of Power
Findings show that three-quarters of Palestinians in the West Bank
and the Gaza Strip support early parliamentary and presidential
elections, while 22% oppose it. The high level of support indicates
the public's conviction that the split caused by the Gaza events
might deepen with time, leading to a permanent separation between
the two geographically separated entities. Support for early
elections might reflect the public's desire not only to reject
violence as a means to solve domestic problems but also to reunify
the PA in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip.
The attitudes of Gazans do not differ from those of West Bankers
regarding early elections. In fact, support for early elections is
slightly higher in the Gaza Strip (77%) compared to the West Bank
(73%). Support for early elections is more prevalent among those
who define themselves as supporters of the peace process (82%)
compared to those who define themselves as opposed to the peace
process (47%), and among supporters of Fateh (91%) compared to
supporters of Hamas (60%).
Findings show that a majority of 56% supports the declaration of
emergency and the formation of an emergency government, while 38%
oppose it. The relatively low level of support for the emergency
declaration compared to the level of support for early elections
indicates that a significant part of the public is concerned about
the effects of the formation of an emergency government on the
infighting and the split between Gaza and the West Bank. Concern
about the emergency situation is more widespread in the Gaza Strip,
where only 49% support it compared to 59% in the West Bank. Support
for the declaration of emergency and for the emergency government
is also higher among those who define themselves as supporters of
the peace process (62%) compared to those who define themselves as
opposed to the peace process (30%), and among supporters of Fateh
(83%) compared to supporters of Hamas (30%).
Survey results show that if new elections were held today, support
for Fateh would remain as it was three months ago (43%), while
Hamas' popularity would drop to 33%. Support for Hamas stood at 37%
in our last survey in March 2007. Hamas popularity has dropped
particularly in the West Bank (27%) compared to three months ago,
when it stood at 35%. In the Gaza Strip, Hamas' popularity remains
unchanged compared to three months ago (40%). Fateh's popularity
has increased slightly in the West Bank (from 41% to 43%) and has
dropped slightly in the Gaza Strip (from 46% to 42%).
These findings show that the Gaza events did not have a great
impact on the domestic balance of power between Fateh and Hamas in
the Gaza Strip. In the West Bank, support for Hamas has dropped
while support for Fateh has increased slightly. Yet, most of those
who defected from Hamas have not shifted their loyalty to Fateh and
have opted instead to become "undecided." Survey results show that
the undecided category has increased from 8% in our
March survey to 13%. The implication is that the decrease in
Hamas' popularity could be temporary and that Fateh remains unable
to benefit from Hamas' mistakes. Findings also show that the other
parties and factions have also failed to present themselves as an
alternative to the two large factions, Fateh and Hamas. The
combined strength of all other parties remains unchanged at 12%
compared to three months ago.
Findings regarding a hypothetical presidential race show a decrease
in the popularity of Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh. In a
competition between Haniyeh and President Mahmoud Abbas (Abu
Mazen), the former receives 42% support and the latter 49%. But 40%
say they will not participate in such elections if the only two
candidates are Haniyeh and Abbas. If the competition is between
Haniyeh and Marwan Barghouthi, the non-participation rate drops to
31% and Barghouthi wins by 59% compared to 35% for Haniyeh overall.
Barghouthi wins against Haniyeh both in the Gaza Strip (55%
compared to 41%) and in the West Bank (62% compared to 30%).
Infighting, Performance of Public Institutions and the Future of
the PA
Findings indicate that the overwhelming majority of Palestinians do
not blame outside parties for the infighting. Instead,
responsibility is placed equally on Fateh and Hamas. Only 9%
believe Fateh and Hamas are not responsible for the infighting, and
59% blame both sides equally, while 15% believe Fateh is more
responsible and 14% believe Hamas is more responsible. Moreover, a
majority of 71% believes that Fateh and Hamas have not come out
winners from the infighting. But in light of the reality of Hamas'
control in Gaza, 18% believe it has emerged a winner, while only 4%
believe Fateh is the winner.
Findings also show that the public has lost confidence in its
leadership and in the majority of the security services and armed
resistance groups. Satisfaction with the performance of Abbas
during the infighting does not exceed 13% and dissatisfaction
stands at 84%. Similarly, satisfaction with the performance of
Haniyeh does not exceed 22% and dissatisfaction stands at 74%.
Dissatisfaction with the overall performance of Abbas drops from
53% three months ago to 36% in this poll. Findings also show a
great disappointment with the performance of the national unity
government during the last three months, with 81% saying that they
are dissatisfied with its performance and only 17% expressing
satisfaction.
Confidence in the security services and armed groups ranges between
little and moderate. Confidence in the Preventive Security services
stands at 33%, General Intelligence 34%, Executive Force 35%,
Presidential Guard 37%, al-Qassam Brigades 45%, the National
Security forces 48%, al-Aqsa Brigades 50% and police 58%.
The worsening conditions and the lack of trust in the PA leadership
and institutions are forcing people to seek alternatives. Findings
show that 41% support the dissolution of the PA and 49% oppose it.
The 41% who support PA dissolution include both those who want to
replace it with an international trusteeship (26%) and those who
want to replace it with a return to full Israeli occupation (16%).
Similarly, findings show that 42% support and 52% oppose the
establishment of a confederation with Jordan. The 42% who support a
confederation include those who want such a confederation now -
before the creation of a Palestinian state - (25%) and those who
wish to have a confederation with Jordan but only after a
Palestinian state is established (17%). There is equal support for
a confederation now in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. Support
for this step is broader among residents of cities (29%) compared
to residents of refugee camps (20%), among illiterates (28%)
compared to holders of bachelor's degrees (22%), among those over
52 years of age (35%) compared to those between 18-22 years of age
(19%), and among supporters of Fateh (28%) compared to supporters
of Hamas (17%).
Other Domestic Issues
An overwhelming majority of Palestinians (90%) describes current
condition as bad or very bad, while only 6% describe it as good or
very good. Findings show that the most immediate and dangerous
threat confronting Palestinians today is infighting and lawlessness
as perceived by 56% of the public, followed by poverty and
unemployment as perceived by 21%, Israeli occupation and
settlements as perceived by 12%, and finally international boycott
and financial sanctions as perceived by 10%. Seventy-three percent
say they do not feel safe or secure in their homes, while 26% say
they do. It seems that with Hamas' control over Gaza complete, more
Gazans (41%) feel safe and secure than do West Bankers (18%).
Findings also show that a great majority of 85% believes that
corruption exists in the PA institutions and that among those 59%
believe that it will increase or remain the same in the
future.
Conditions described above lead 28% of Palestinians to seek
immigration to other countries, while 23% say they are not proud of
being Palestinians. It is worth mentioning that a little over a
year ago, in May 2006, the percentage of those wishing to immigrate
stood at 17% and the percentage of those not proud of being
Palestinians did not exceed 2%.
Similarly, events in Gaza have affected the public's view of
democracy. In this poll 41% (compared to 56% in March 2007) said
that democracy is a viable system suitable for Palestine and 54%
(compared to 40%
last March) said that democracy is a failed system unsuitable
for Palestine. Despite this negative assessment of democracy, 42%
of those who said that democracy is unsuitable for Palestine said
they want to maintain it despite its problems while 45% said it
should be replaced with an undemocratic system.
Findings show that despite the spread of violence and calls for
extremism in the Gaza Strip, the overwhelming majority in the West
Bank and the Gaza Strip (82%) describes acts such as kidnapping
foreigners, burning Internet cafes and bombing foreign schools as
criminal and deserving condemnation, while only 3% describe them as
nationalistic and deserving support. Twelve percent say some of
these acts are nationalistic and others are criminal.
Peace Process
The poll asked about public attitudes regarding various aspects of
the peace process in order to assess the impact of the infighting
on those attitudes. Findings indicate a slight decrease in support
for the Saudi initiative and for the two-state solution but show
support for security proposals aimed at restoring stability to
Palestinian-Israeli relations. They also show a great deal of
pessimism about the prospects for the creation of a Palestinian
state or for reaching a compromise settlement with the Olmert
government.
Support for the Saudi initiative is down to 66%, compared to 72% in
our
March poll. Opposition to this initiative stands at 31%.
Findings also show that 36% of the public believe that Hamas
supports the Saudi initiative while 41% believe it does not.
Moreover, 25% believe that the Olmert government supports the
initiative while 55% believe it does not. When, in an elaboration
of a possible version of the Saudi initiative, we insert a proposed
solution to the refugee problem based on the Clinton Parameters of
2000, i.e., a solution based on UN resolution 194 but in which
return to Israel is subject to an Israeli decision, support for
this version of the Saudi initiative drops to 46% and opposition
increases to 49%.
Findings also show that 60%, compared to 63% last March, support a
two-state solution whereby Israel is recognized as the state for
the Jewish people and Palestine is recognized as the state for the
Palestinian people after the establishment of a Palestinian state
and the resolution of all issues of conflict, while 38% oppose it.
In such an environment, 70% would support reconciliation between
the two peoples.
Respondents were presented with a list of the major components of
the American security plan that was presented to the parties in May
2007 and included, on the Palestinian side, putting an end to
terrorism, the launching of rockets against Israel, smuggling of
arms and lawlessness; and on the Israeli side, the opening of
international crossings, linking the West Bank with Gaza and
removal of Israeli checkpoints in the West Bank. Sixty-three
percent said they support and 36% said they oppose the American
security plan. Similarly, 63% supported and 34% opposed the plan
presented by Abbas for a ceasefire with Israel that would start in
the Gaza Strip and then be extended to the West Bank. Support for
this ceasefire plan stands at 54% in the Gaza Strip and 68% in the
West Bank.
Findings indicate a strong opposition to the deployment of armed
international forces along the borders with Egypt and Israel in
order to prevent smuggling and launching of rockets against Israel.
Only 35% supported and 61% opposed this proposal. Support for the
deployment of such forces is higher in the Gaza Strip at 38%,
compared to 33% in the West Bank. Support also increases among
supporters of Fateh (48%) compared to supporters of Hamas
(18%).
Despite the support for the Saudi initiative and the two-state
solution, only 26% believe that the chances are medium or high for
the establishment of a Palestinian state in the next five years,
while 70% believe the chances are low or nonexistent. Similarly,
only 31% believe that it is possible these days to reach a
compromise agreement with the Olmert government and 65% believe it
is impossible.