The rapid occupation of Baghdad and the collapse of Sadam Hussein's
regime caught every observer by surprise, presumably, along with US
President George W. Bush himself. But if military operations in the
city seem to have ended, the job is not yet done. It is easy to
imagine what this country will look like when it sinks into
anarchy, in the absence of law and order. There could even be more
bloodshed after the war than there was during it.
Maintaining public order, preventing individuals taking the law
into their own hands and stabilizing the situation seem to be the
real challenges ahead. Things could yet get out of hand. The less
time the coalition forces remain in Baghdad and the quicker they
hand authority to an authentic democratic Iraqi regime, the less
bloodshed there will be.
President Bush has admitted, for the first time since preparations
for war against Iraq began, that this conflict will be longer and
harsher than expected. This admission was not a revelation for many
observers. But the fact President Bush made it is
significant.
Iraq is not a minor state but a large one with considerable
resources and advanced military capabilities. It also has
significant experience in the administration of war, its conditions
and requirements, as a result of its lengthy war with Iran and the
attack led by the US in the early '90s. Iraq has ambitions to play
a leading role in the Gulf region and in the Arab world in general.
Accordingly, it has continuously worked on developing its combat
capabilities and building up its military forces. It seems this has
disturbed the US, as it is not in America's interest to have any
strong Arab state, especially not in the Gulf. Iraq controls one
fifth of the world's oil reserves and is situated near the oil
fields of the Gulf States and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Thus, if
Iraq becomes too strong militarily, it could pose a threat to
Western interests in the area.
War without Pretext or Legality
On the eve of the military attack and immediately after it started,
a number of world leaders condemned the war, emphasizing its
immorality and illegality. This war is without legitimate rationale
and is not covered by any international legality. Additionally, the
US administration is trying to deny the Anglo-American character of
the war by describing it as one launched by "international
coalition" to demilitarize Iraq, render it void of weapons of mass
destruction and bring freedom and democracy to the Iraqi
people!
No matter what political opinions or analyses state, the main
difference between this war and the one in 1991 is that the first
was a technological war, aiming to damage Saddam Hussein's regime
and his country's infrastructure, but without occupying Iraq. The
first war failed to either topple Saddam Hussein, change the regime
in Iraq, or force it to submit to US interests and policies. This
second war has arrived with the clearly stated goal of making
ground incursions into Iraq and occupying it to take control and
change the regime.
Iraqis are Experienced
The Iraqi people have experienced a long, tough war with Iran.
Almost every Iraqi male participated in that war and therefore has
military training and experience. Islamic commitment is deeply
rooted in this society. All Iraqis carry weapons. The tribal
structure is strong and militant. The Iraqi people have been known
throughout history, since the days of the Rashideen Khalifas, as a
tough, proud people. They never surrender or succumb. This has been
bred in them over more than five thousand years of
civilization.
In the worst-case scenario, the Iraqi people will absorb the shock
and the American army will enter a number of Iraqi cities and
occupy them, after a lengthy and bloody war with thousands of
victims. But this occupation will be very costly. It will encounter
resistance at every level. An Iraqi grassroots national and Islamic
resistance movement will soon develop to fight the American and
British koffar (non-believer's) occupation. It will attract
volunteers from different Arab and Islamic countries to join the
Jihad.
I could even go as far as to say that if the Anglo-American
occupation of Iraq continues, the resistance against it would
develop into a fundamental Islamic resistance which will attract
volunteers from all over the Arab and Islamic world to join the
Jihad for the sake of God - similar to the one that arose in
Afghanistan against the Russian army's occupation, and which was
able to defeat the Russian forces. Later it developed into a
fanatic nucleus from which the Taliban and the Bin Laden group,
which were behind the events of September 11, emerged.
An Honorable Stance
Some in the Arab world have tried to dress this war in crusader
garbs, referring to the religious beliefs that influence Bush. He
used the term crusade himself, though it was later described as a
slip of the tongue. The moral and religious stand taken by
Christian religious leaders all over the world against Bush's war
has negated any "Christian" influence and placed it within the
circle of colonial wars. His Holiness Pope John Paul II tried hard
to prevent this war, strongly condemning it, along with a huge
number of ecclesiastic leaders from all over the world. This
honorable stance against the war is in harmony with the spirit of
Christianity as a religion of brotherhood, love and peace, and has
torn the mask off Bush and his colonial war.
If the occupation of Iraq, or parts of it, provokes an Islamic
resistance movement, and Islamic volunteers start arriving in Iraq
to fight this sacrilegious occupation, will the confrontation
remain between the Islamic resistance and the colonial occupation
forces or will there be elements who try to derail the tracks of
this confrontation thus giving the conflict an Islamic-Christian
attribute?
The most dangerous state this war could develop into is a religious
conflict in the region, which is furthest from the minds of its
nations. Some may predict how this religious conflict, which the
American administration will be responsible for igniting, might
begin, but no one knows how it could end. And those who think it
might create a pretext for their continued interference in the
affairs of the region are mistaken.
Implications for Israel and Palestine
Some may have questions about the impact of the war in Iraq on the
Palestinian-Israeli conflict and on international efforts to
achieve a political settlement to this conflict, ending the
suffering and methodic killing and destruction of our people. The
Blair government and its Washington cronies has lately been making
proclamations about the finalization of the Road Map, while linking
this to the appointment of a Palestinian prime minister, giving the
impression that everything depends on whether he will enjoy real
authority or not. This is interpreted as an attempt to delude Arab
citizens into the assumption that the Palestinians' suffering is
about to end, while leaving the door open for arguments about his
effectiveness, and preventing a serious attempt to reach a new
peace settlement. The Palestinians are not in need of mere
declarations about the Road Map or a new peace settlement; there
are already many versions of those. What is needed is actual
implementation of this Road Map. But there are fears about what
will happen if the US finds itself stuck deep in the Iraqi mire.
Would it still have time for the Israeli Palestinian
conflict?
Most disturbing, is the fact that if the war in Iraq does not go
according to American plans, the US administration will find itself
more and more caught up in its attempts to drag itself out of the
Iraqi quagmire, which could marginalize the conflict here,
distancing it from the top priorities of international diplomacy.
It is easy to plan and declare a war, but no one can guarantee how
it will end. Iraq, with its internal complexities - a
multi-factioned internal opposition, along with the presence of
Kurds, Shiites and Sunnis and their proximity to Iranian Shiites in
the south and Turkish Kurds in the north - is a good example of the
complexities of war and the potential for the original plans to be
derailed.
What does Bush Want?
Thinking of the bloodshed that will result from this war and the
incredible destruction that will be visited on Iraq and its people,
the possibility that flames of fighting will spread beyond the
borders of Iraq has instilled fear in the hearts of people in the
region.